Value is the key to successful punting

In this article I will illustrate how it is possible to make a profit from betting on horse racing though finding value. It is near impossible to make money in horse racing by blindly backing favourites, you need to look for value and as you read below, you will find value and show a net profit over time. 

Value can be a form of second income if you are disciplined, consistent, and have patience. Firstly, and very importantly, it is a "long term" bet, not a get rich quick scheme.

The theory is quite simple; every horse has a true market price, the correct price that represents their chances in that respective race. A true 7/1 shot will win once in every 8 times, that is simple mathematics.

So my job is to basically find horses that are bigger than what they should be in the market, and with a competitive chance. So if I can find 14/1 about true 7/1 shot, they will only win 1 in every 8 times, but you will be getting 15 units back for your 8 spent.

That's the basic theory behind value, and with my 30 years experience and knowledge, I know I can spot horses at least double the price they should be, and hence in the long run we will make money backing value, provided you keep your stake consistent and you are disciplined.

The best example to explain this, and the long term aspect is to look at the the toss of a coin, the correct odds for either heads or tails is even money.

Now imagine getting 2/1 about tails for example, yes you will lose many, but over a long period it is mathematically impossible not to make a net profit when you are getting over the odds.

TIPS ON WHAT TO LOOK FOR TO FIND VALUE

One of my favourite things to look for, especially in a handicap, is for a horse that has dropped in the ratings, and then find a reason why that horse could come back to form.

The handicappers are good at what they do, and in a handicap they are trying to give every horse and equal chance of winning based on the weight they carry in accordance to their ratings they are given, the ratings based on current form.

Prices are directly related to that form, so if you can find a horse running well below is best rating, and a reason for that horse to come back to form, eureka, there is your value!

Here is a short list of this you can look for that can make a horse regain best form; A horse that returning from gelding, blinker or any type of headgear change, horses that have been rested, horses that have had wind operations, horses that and changed stables, sometimes a change is as good as a holiday. These a just a handful of things to look out for to help you find value.

Greyville 19 October, Our Value Bet, "Tara Star", won at 12/1 and made it seven 'value bet' winners in seven days for The Whisperer website www.whisperer.co.za. This extract below is how I found the horse and why I felt it had the short-priced favourite beaten:

"Today I have gone with Tara Star in the 9th race. She has won three-times in the wet, has two wins and a second from four starts over today's course and distance, and she is well-treated by the conditions of this stakes race, and received a sex allowance. On top of that she has a 2,5kg claimer riding her that has won on her before, and we can't get hurt with an win and place bet on Tara Star at around 10/1."

It's as easy as 1-2-3 (with a full money back guarantee!) Take a membership that has UK and SA racing. Back every value bet for the same amount. Sit back and watch your balance grow. Patience, discipline and consistency equals profit!

Our value bet facts:

The Whisperer Value Bet has 48 units up on a level stake wagered in October this year. This means if you had placed R1000 on every Whisperer Value Bet in the UK and SA in October, your net profit would be R48,000.00!

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