South Africa's motor industry sales surge as market dynamics shift

As 2025 draws to a close, South Africa's motor industry has demonstrated that predicting vehicle sales is increasingly an art rather than a science. Brandon Cohen, Chairperson of the National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA), remarked on the unexpected retail sales figures for November, highlighting an impressive uptick in sales that few commentators could have foreseen.

November's aggregate industry sales reached 54,896 units, showing a substantial 12.5% increase compared to the same month in 2024. The year-to-date total now stands at an impressive 547,966 units, marking a remarkable 15.4% surge from last year's figures through November.

Of the 54,896 vehicles sold last month, a dominant 79.6% (43,702 units) flowed through dealer retail sales channels. The remaining share of sales comprised 16.3% to the rental sector, 2.4% to government entities, and 1.7% to corporate fleets. This distribution illustrates a growing trend in consumer preferences and market performance.

Breaking down the market, passenger car sales recorded an encouraging 11% increase year-on-year. Meanwhile, light commercial vehicles (LCVs) outperformed expectations with a robust 20.5% rise. Despite these positive trends, the medium and heavy truck markets displayed signs of weakness, with medium trucks down by 0.4% and heavy trucks dipping by 1.3% compared to November last year.

Cohen noted that "the aggressive marketing of a wide range of affordable models from China and India" has been pivotal in lifting retail sales. He added that the rental sector's contribution is significant, accounting for 16.3% of the overall market and a notable 21.2% of new passenger car sales, as rental operators eagerly expand their fleets in anticipation of an influx of international tourists during the festive season.

Key factors contributing to consumer confidence include the successful hosting of the global G20 Conference, decreasing fuel prices, and positive trends in South Africa’s fiscal health, which suggest the nation is gaining creditworthiness. These conditions have fostered an environment of tighter monetary controls and anticipated further interest rate cuts, leading to an increase in finance approvals as affordability improves and credit conditions become more favourable.

According to Cohen, "The ongoing buoyancy in the country’s economic environment, along with attractive incentives to purchase new vehicles before year-end, is expected to bring another robust month of sales in December, potentially achieving one of the highest annual totals of the past decade."