NFP's withdrawal from KZN coalition: A pivotal shift in provincial politics

The recent withdrawal of the National Freedom Party (NFP) from the Government of Provincial Unity (GPU) marks a significant turning point in the political landscape of KwaZulu-Natal (KZN).

This unexpected shift could unsettle the existing balance of power among the coalition parties, fundamentally altering the governance dynamics in the province.

The coalition, which previously included the NFP alongside the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), the African National Congress (ANC), and the Democratic Alliance (DA), had consolidated a slim majority with 41 out of 80 seats in the legislature.

Political analysts, such as Professor Bheki Mngomezulu, have noted the NFP's critical role in the stability of this coalition, emphasising its capacity to influence legislative outcomes.

Prof. Mngomezulu stated, “The NFP’s presence was vital in providing the necessary majority, holding 50 per cent plus one vote.”

However, with the NFP’s departure and its subsequent alignment with the Umkhonto WeSizwe party (MKP), which commands 37 seats, and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) with their 2 seats, the political dynamics are poised to shift dramatically.

This new alliance suggests that the MKP could claim a potential majority, tallying 39 seats against the existing coalition's 40.

“In a scenario where both sides are at 40 seats, the speaker traditionally does not vote, giving the MK party slight leverage,” Mngomezulu explained, emphasising the precariousness of the current coalition.

NFP President Ivan Barnes articulated that it stands to reason for the MK party to lead the province, given their status as the largest vote getter.

Yet, political experts have raised concerns about this reasoning, pointing to contradictions in Barnes’s previous commitments to a coalition that starkly opposes such logic.

“The shift appears to be more about tactical manoeuvring rather than a true ideological transformation,” noted Prof. Mngomezulu.

He asserts that the discrepancies between the voting results and the coalition’s formation warrant inquiry into the motivations behind its structure.

The IFP, which secured just 18 per cent of the votes while retaining the premiership, raises further scrutiny over the viability of these political strategies.

The NFP’s choice to realign is linked to discontent voiced by its leadership, with Mngomezulu suggesting this decision stems from a search for better leverage and influence over governance.

The DA’s provincial leader, Francois Rodgers, disagreed with speculative implications of a new provincial government emerging from this turmoil, asserting the necessity for the remaining coalition partners to regroup.

“One wonders if the NFP’s move is about effective service delivery or if there’s an ulterior motive,” he remarked, recalling prior engagements where Barnes sought a position as District Mayor of Zululand.

Meanwhile, the EFF has openly backed the NFP’s stance to suspend Shinga from her executive position following her refusal to resign by the stipulated deadline.

Shinga’s allegiance came under fire when she defied party lines by voting alongside Premier Thami Ntuli in a critical confidence vote last December, setting off a chain of events that culminated in her suspension.

Chris Msibi, EFF provincial spokesperson, characterised the former coalition as “devilish,” citing its failure to represent the majority and blaming its factions for ongoing rivalries.

He emphasised a call for unity among the parties to secure real change for constituents.