South Africa's municipal elections: The rise of hung councils and coalition governance

Political analysts and the South African Local Government Association (SALGA) warn that the landscape following this year’s municipal elections is likely to be characterised by an increase in hung councils, raising concerns about governance and service delivery across the nation.

According to leadership experts, the political climate in South Africa has been evolving, with indications that the era of one-party dominance is gradually diminishing.

Professor Zweli Ndevu from the Inclusive Society Institute emphasised that the prevalence of coalitions is becoming a defining feature of local governance.

“We've seen that happening at local government level, at provincial level, and at national government level,” he stated. “This trend suggests a diminishing trust in any single political party ruling over the populace.”

Historically, the move towards coalition governance began after the introduction of democracy in South Africa, and SALGA's Chief Officer for Intergovernmental Relations and Municipal Resilience, Lance Joel, noted that this pattern was evident even in the country’s first democratic local elections in 2000. Initially, there were 29 coalitions, predominantly in the Western Cape.

However, this number has surged with each subsequent election cycle, culminating in a staggering 81 municipalities governed by coalitions following the 2021 local elections.

Joel expressed concerns that the chaos stemming from coalition governance has impacted numerous metropolitan areas since the 2016 elections.

“Now, the highest number of people live in metros, and they are directly affected,” he remarked.

“The disorder that has emerged from these coalitions has been a significant concern for us, particularly when vital services are at stake.”

The findings from multiple elections suggest a likelihood of continued instability in local governance structures.

As communities prepare for the next municipal elections in 2026, data analyses predict an even greater number of coalitions, challenging the effectiveness of governance and the delivery of essential services to citizens.

The Local Government Elections are expected to (LGE) take place anytime between November 2, 2026, and January 31, 2027.

This was announced by the Electoral Commission’s (IEC) Chief Electoral Officer Sy Mamabolo, last year.

Mamabolo says, “The law provides that the term of a municipal council is five years and that elections must be held no later than 90 days following the end of term. The current municipal councils were elected on 1 November 2021. This means that the current term will end on 2 November 2026.”

There are about 34 new political parties that will be contesting the upcoming LGE, which were registered since the 2024 general elections.