NFP's pivotal role in KwaZulu-Natal's Government of Provincial Unity

The political landscape in KwaZulu-Natal is once again under the microscope as analysts examine the tumultuous state of the Government of Provincial Unity (GPU) that currently leads the province.

In light of a potential motion of no confidence being brought once again against KZN Premier Thami Ntuli, political analyst Andre Duvenage delved into the uncertainties that could reshape the dynamics of the coalition ahead of the 2026 local government elections.

This comes as the National Freedom Party (NFP) signalled its intent to support the no-confidence motion spearheaded by the Umkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP).

It marks a significant shift from the NFP's previous stance, where Mbali Shinga, the party’s current MEC of Social Development, opposed a similar motion last December, despite the instruction she received from the party.

NFP spokesperson Romeo Dladla said: “No mistakes shall be entertained this time around,” as he spoke about the party's commitment to align with national directives.

He stated that the provincial executive committee (PEC) of the NFP has unanimously backed a strategy to exit the GPU, illustrating unity and determination within the party's ranks.

Dladla said that coherence across the party's structures was paramount and signalled a turning away from its previous turbulence. Previously, the provincial structure had supported the GPU.

Duvenage highlighted how fragile party discipline had become within the coalition. Regarding Shinga defying party directives, Duvenage said: “It’s a question of party discipline; in that context, it is probably problematic.”

This shifting allegiance among coalition partners could lead to serious ramifications, with a prediction of a 40-40 split looming should the vote take place in the 80-seat KZN Legislature.

The scenario presents a precarious picture for the GPU, as Duvenage noted that neither faction holds an outright majority.

“The other group is not guaranteed a majority,” he explained, adding that just one defector could tip the balance.

Attention now turns to whether any coalition partner will switch sides amid the escalating tensions, further intensifying the political landscape.

If stalemates persist, Duvenage believes national intervention “of some sort” may be necessary to restore order and ensure the continuation of the democratic process.

He stated that such intervention could be vital in resolving disputes and ensuring a functioning government remains in place.

The political stakes in KwaZulu-Natal remain high, making party discipline a central issue.

Duvenage said: “The party has the right to remove any candidate that is not voting according to their instructions.”

Meanwhile, the fate of Mbali Shinga, both as a member of the legislature and as MEC, hangs in the balance, with Dladla confirming that the NFP is engaged in internal disciplinary proceedings to determine her future.

“Such matters are subject to internal party disciplinary processes. The NFP will communicate any decisions formally once they are finalised,” Dladla said regarding a decision that could have significant political ramifications for the province.

Shinga was placed on immediate suspension last year after she openly defied the party's instructions to support a motion of no confidence against the KZN premier. For her defiance, she received a three-month suspension pending disciplinary proceedings.

The party confirmed that while disciplinary processes were ongoing against Shinga, she was barred from participating in party activities.

Shinga, who is also the NFP’s KwaZulu-Natal chairperson, is the party’s sole representative in the provincial legislature. She had previously indicated that she was consulting her legal team to challenge the party’s decision.

Shinga did not respond to questions sent to her by the publication.

DAILY NEWS