Paul Ehrlich, who has just died, was a full-time doomsday prophet, warning of catastrophic population outcomes that never materialised.
The major media outlets at the time praised Ehrlich’s predictions and amplified his theories. Nations began taking the dire forecasts seriously and implemented policies based on them. Today, many of those same outlets publish obituaries emphasising how wrong he was.
Economist Julian Simon was a lone voice challenging Ehrlich, arguing that economic incentives would resolve the problems being predicted. Other market-based economists made similar arguments, but they received far less attention.
What concerned me was how the public and much of the media were largely unaware of this counter-position. Steeped in economic jargon, it failed to reach general readers. What was needed was a clearer explanation for a wider audience.
So in 1995 I wrote a book on myths about population growth, Exploding Population Myths, published by South Africa’s Free Market Foundation. I noted that many liberals lacked a sound understanding of economics, and while their intentions were good, their conclusions were often wrong.
The main point of my book was to explain why global population growth was already declining and would continue to do so. It was not the runaway crisis that panic narratives suggested, but a long-term stabilising trend.
One of my central arguments was that population dynamics are driven by death rates, life expectancy, and poverty. In poorer societies, children are often economic assets; in wealthier societies, they become financial liabilities due to the cost of raising them.
As countries become more prosperous, fertility rates naturally decline. In the 1960s, South African women had an average of six children, while today the rate is closer to 2.21, with replacement level at about 2.1.
In market-oriented economies, populations can still grow even as fertility rates fall below replacement levels, largely due to increased life expectancy and lower mortality.
The real challenge is that rising life expectancy and falling fertility produce ageing populations. This can increase reliance on immigration, which often contributes positively to economic growth despite political resistance.
Overpopulation hysteria has largely faded, as wealth creation and demographic trends have contradicted earlier predictions. Economic development has proven to be a key factor in reducing birth rates.
If countries such as South Africa want to manage population pressures effectively, they must focus on increasing economic prosperity. As I wrote in 1995: “The solution is simple: free the people to produce; allow the people to keep what they produce; and the people will produce.”
I do not celebrate Ehrlich’s death, but I am relieved that his ideas have largely faded from serious influence. | James Peron Free Market Foundation
The United States has failed to secure meaningful peace talks in Islamabad, highlighting ongoing diplomatic challenges in the region.
The suggestion has been made that perhaps the talks should instead have been arranged with the Pakistani government in Abbottabad. After all, that was where the US claimed a major victory on May 2, 2011, when Seal Team 6 killed the Al Qaeda leader in his compound. | Eric Palm Gympie, Australia
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