Steenhuisen's ministerial future uncertain as he steps down from DA leadership race

Democratic Alliance leader John Steenhuisen’s time in government may be coming to an end, with political analysts warning that his decision not to stand for re-election as party leader has left his position as a cabinet minister increasingly uncertain.

Steenhuisen announced on Wednesday that he would step aside when the DA goes to its elective conference in April, saying he wanted to focus fully on his role as Minister of Agriculture and on tackling South Africa’s foot-and-mouth disease outbreak. However, analysts argue that relinquishing the party’s top post weakens his standing within the Government of National Unity (GNU).

Political analyst Professor Kedibone Phago from North-West University said Steenhuisen’s explanation does not add up and has, in fact, made his future in government precarious.

“His reason doesn’t make sense,” Phago said. “Stepping down as DA leader in order to focus on being a minister actually weakens his position. Without control over the party, he won’t have influence over who serves in government and can easily be reshuffled.”

Phago said recent public briefings suggested Steenhuisen was already operating within tight political constraints, adding that similar pressure could see him sidelined once a new DA leader is elected.

“He was given a script to stick to and was ultimately pushed,” Phago said. “The same thing is likely to happen after April.”

According to Phago, Steenhuisen’s survival in cabinet may depend on who succeeds him as DA leader. He believes Steenhuisen’s chances improve significantly if Cape Town mayor Geordin Hill-Lewis, who already holds executive power, emerges victorious.

“He might survive if the leadership goes to the mayor of Cape Town. But if it goes to someone without a government position, he will be embattled and I don’t see him completing his term.”

Steenhuisen, however, has framed his decision as the natural conclusion of his leadership journey. Speaking in Durban on Wednesday, he said he had fulfilled the mandate he was given when he took over the party in 2019, at a time when the DA was facing declining support and internal instability.

“I have delivered everything that I promised my party when I was first elected as federal leader back in 2019,” he said. “I proudly picked up the party’s banner when its internal polling was down to just 16% and after the media had declared the ‘death of the DA’.”

He said his leadership focused on strengthening the party’s core values, which he believes helped stabilise the DA and ultimately led to its participation in national government in 2024.

Steenhuisen said his term would be remembered for helping place South Africa on what he described as a new path to prosperity through the GNU.

“This is not the end of the road for the DA, or for myself,” he said. “The next mission is to build on our success in the GNU and grow the DA into the biggest party in South Africa, capable of leading future coalition governments at local, provincial and national levels.”

For the remainder of his term, Steenhuisen said he would focus his full attention on addressing the foot-and-mouth disease crisis, including rolling out mass vaccination to prevent future outbreaks. He is expected to remain DA leader until the elective conference in April, where his successor will be chosen.

Another political analyst, Dr Levy Ndou, shared similar views, arguing that South Africa’s political culture makes it difficult for non-party leaders to retain senior government positions.

“I don’t see him remaining a minister if he is no longer part of the top leadership,” Ndou said. “In South African politics, cabinet positions are typically reserved for party leaders. If Steenhuisen stays on, the DA would be doing something we have not seen before.”

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