South Africa's 'misleading' matric results hide 35% dropout rate, warns AfriForum

Civil society organisation AfriForum has cautioned that South Africa’s matric pass rate presents a misleading picture of the true state of the country’s education system, saying it masks deep-rooted failures that begin long before learners reach Grade 12.

This comes after the National Senior Certificate (NSC) results for 2025 were announced on Monday night. The organisation has gone against the grain after major political parties praised the class of 2025 for its outstanding achievements.

According to AfriForum, while the matric pass rate is often celebrated as a key indicator of progress, it fails to account for the large number of learners who drop out of the system years earlier. The organisation noted that approximately 1.2 million learners started Grade 1 in 2014, but only about 778 000, roughly 65%, made it to matric in 2025. This means that around 422 000 learners had already fallen out of the education system before reaching their final year of schooling.

“When one looks at how many hopeful learners with great potential start Grade 1, but ultimately never reach or pass matric, it becomes clear that the problem did not arise in their matric year,” said Carien Bloem, AfriForum’s head of education projects. “It is a systemic failure that develops over years and particularly hits children in dysfunctional schools hard.”

AfriForum pointed to the high number of dysfunctional schools across the country as a major contributor to poor educational outcomes. In these schools, teaching is often irregular, inadequate or of poor quality, which directly affects learners’ academic performance and long-term prospects.

The organisation warned that essential foundational skills such as reading, writing, mathematical problem-solving and critical thinking are frequently neglected in the early years of schooling. This, it said, weakens learners’ academic foundations and undermines their chances of success later in their school careers.

Bloem further raised concerns about examination irregularities, including the leaking of exam papers, which she said undermine the credibility of the matric examination system and create a false impression of learner performance.

“These matters do a great injustice to learners who are trying to succeed under difficult circumstances,” she said.

AfriForum argued that the combination of dysfunctional schools, poor governance, a lack of accountability and examination irregularities results in many learners being denied the quality education to which they are entitled. Beyond the academic impact, the organisation said this has serious consequences for young people’s access to further education, employment opportunities and meaningful participation in the economy.

The organisation has called on the Department of Basic Education to shift its focus away from using the matric pass rate as a political yardstick and instead prioritise early childhood development, quality education in the foundation phase, the rehabilitation of dysfunctional schools and decisive action against examination irregularities.

“The true measure of success in education should not be based solely on the percentage of matriculants who pass matric, but on the number of learners who start with Grade 1, see it through to the end and ultimately leave the education system at the end of matric with the knowledge and skills that enable them to carve out a prosperous future for themselves,” Bloem said.

SUNDAY TRIBUNE