Can South Africa achieve its ambitious goal of 15 million tourists by 2030?

As South Africa approaches the festive season with a target of welcoming approximately 15 million international visitors by 2030, the Ministry of Tourism announced that from January to October 2025, the country welcomed approximately 8.56 million tourists, an increase of 1.3 million compared to the same period in 2024.

The ministry reports that South Africa's tourism sector is experiencing robust growth, with October 2025 recording 927,426 tourist arrivals.

This marks a significant 32% increase compared to October 2024, making it one of the strongest months on record.

Tourism Minister Patricia de Lille commented on these encouraging figures, stating, “These numbers reflect the hard work of our industry partners, improved ease of travel, enhanced air access, and our continued focus on service excellence and new tourism experiences. South Africa is becoming more competitive, and visitors are responding."

De Lille also expressed gratitude to the country’s 1.8 million tourism workers, saying, “To all the dedicated tourism workers across the country, thank you for your commitment. You are the heartbeat of this sector, and this growth is a testament to your resilience and professionalism.

"I also want to thank our workforce in advance for their efforts to ensure our tourists experience South Africa's hospitality during the festive season peak.”

Over the past two years, international tourism has regained momentum as the world moves on from the pandemic.

Borders have reopened, airlines have reinstated routes, and travellers are once again filling airports, hotels and beaches.

In this global recovery, South Africa is re-emerging as one of the continent’s most compelling destinations, blending nature, cultureand cuisine into a unique mosaic.

However, while the rebound is promising, some experts note that South Africa's recovery has been slower than that of regional competitors, highlighting both gains and ongoing challenges.

According to Travel and Tour World, South Africa recorded 5.85 million international arrivals between January and July 2025, a 14% increase compared to the same period in 2024.

“The numbers place the country just 1% shy of pre-pandemic levels. While global tourism had already recovered to 2019 levels in 2024, South Africa remained 13% below its pre-pandemic benchmark, lagging behind destinations such as Morocco, Kenya, and Tanzania, all of which exceeded their 2019 records,” stated QuotesAdvisor.

The online platform noted that Morocco welcomed 17.4 million tourists in 2024, a 20% increase compared to 2019, while Tanzania saw an 18% rise, with Tunisia even surpassing South Africa with 10.3 million visitors, exceeding South Africa’s target.

“A significant portion of the explanation lies in the composition of demand. Of the 5.85 million arrivals recorded between January and July, 4.55 million were from other African nations - nearly eight out of every ten visitors.

"This strong regional base reflects increasing mobility across the continent and South Africa’s role as a major travel hub, but it also highlights a decline in long-haul tourism, which typically generates higher spending per traveller,” noted the service provider.

They also stated that in September, South Africa finally exceeded its total pre-pandemic arrival figures, reaching 7.6 million visitors - 73,000 more than during the same period in 2019, with most arrivals coming from neighbouring countries, including Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Lesotho and Botswana. 

"Looking ahead to 2026, the outlook is promising. Projections suggest South Africa could surpass 10 million international arrivals, supported by major cultural and sporting events such as the Cape Town Carnival and Durban Tourism Month.

"The official target is 15 million visitors by 2030; ambitious but attainable if the country maintains its current pace and strengthens its position as a diverse, safe, and sustainable destination," said the online platform.