Sasol’s share price continued its downward spiral yesterday, falling by up to 6% and bringing its decline over 12 months to over 55%, despite sales and production in the first three months of its 2025 year being largely in line with market guidance.
The group said in a trading statement yesterday that only the crude oil refinery Natref was trading below guidance. Fuel production at the refinery was 24% higher than the previous quarter, but 27% lower than the first quarter of 2024, mainly due to the planned shutdown, along with start-up delays in the first quarter of 2025.
This, together with “operational challenges” experienced at the end of the quarter, had resulted in an expected volume increase of only 0%-10% compared with the 2024 financial year, down from the previous guidance for the prior year.
Secunda Operations (SO) synfuels production volumes were 1% lower in the first quarter over the previous quarter due to the phased shutdown in the first quarter, and 2% lower than in the first quarter of 2024 due to coal quality challenges and lower equipment availability. Full year production volumes were still expected to be between 7 million-7.2m tons.
The ORYX GTL production ramped up as planned following a shutdown and successful completion in the previous quarter. Both trains were running stably and production for 2025 was expected to be 40% to 60% higher compared with the 2024 financial year.
Liquid fuel sales for the first quarter were 1% lower than the previous quarter and 9% lower than the first quarter of 2024.
“We still expect sales volumes to be within the previous guidance of 0%-4% higher, dependent on an improvement in SO and Natref production for the rest of the year. We also continue to explore opportunities to optimise the channel mix to enhance financial performance,” the group directors said in a statement.
In the mining segment, saleable production was 1% lower than the fourth quarter of 2024 and 4% lower than the same quarter of 2024, impacted by coal quality and operational challenges, which led to higher external coal purchases. Saleable production for 2025 was still expected to be 30m-32m tons. Mining costs were within market guidance levels.
In the Chemicals America segment, sales revenue was 2% higher over the previous quarter and 12% higher than the first quarter of 2024, driven predominantly by base chemicals, despite lower volumes from the East Cracker outages. Margin pressure remained a risk despite stable average sales basket prices.
Chemicals Eurasia sales volumes were 2% lower than the previous quarter largely due to weakness in the economic environment. Production rates at several units were being managed in response to lower demand.
The Chemical Africa segment reported sales volumes 9% lower than the previous quarter, mainly due to the in September. Sales volumes were up 6% driven by 11% higher sales prices offset by 5% lower sales volumes.
Sasol and Eskom signed an agreement positioning Sasol as the “gas aggregator for South Africa.” The partnership aimed to support the transition to addressing long-term LNG needs and developing necessary infrastructure.
Sasol said its business overall had been impacted by the strengthening of the rand against the US dollar, oil price volatility and lower refining margins. Global chemical markets remained oversupplied, with higher input costs, chemical prices and demand, impacting group margins.
The 69MW Msenge Emoyeni Wind Farm in the Eastern Cape started commercial operations in October, supplying power to Sasolburg Operations via the national grid. This project was completed in only 18 months and marked a milestone towards the group’s 1 200MW renewable energy target by 2030, the directors said.
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