We are bombarded every day from minute to minute about the disastrous situation in South Africa. From the politics to the economy to the sociology and the environment everything seems hopeless.
Unemployment is almost at 50%, electricity is collapsing and crime is on the rise.
That seems to be the message as bad news sells. I want to try to look at some of the positives and purposely ignore the negatives.
Most of you will recall the 1970s and 1980s when the situation looked hopeless. I recall speaking to trade union leaders who predicted violence, mayhem and a complete revolution.
History tells us it was completely different. We became the darling of the international community. Today, I believe a similar situation exists. We are on the cusp of a ground-breaking election next year.
There will be negative talk as political parties try to put each other down and blame each other for the negativity around us. I strongly believe this election will be a watershed and although it could be said that we are at rock bottom we will start building from there.
There will be a complete realignment of the political situation. I do not believe that a partnership between the ANC and the EFF, if it comes about, a long shot, will survive. The break-up of this partnership will lead to a new and forward-thinking government.
Let’s just take a look at what has been deemed to be a negative but could be proved to be a great big positive. The rand is dropping and is doing extremely poorly against the dollar and the pound. One would think this has no positives in it. Well in essence, I am starting to experience the positive.
Most of our manufacturing over the past 20 years has been moved to other jurisdictions. We can safely say that the manufacturing industry in just about every single industrial complex in South Africa has been outsourced to other jurisdictions.
There were a whole lot of reasons for this. First, you were able to bring in goods cheaper and quicker than what we could manufacture in South Africa. Our raw materials very seldom beneficiated in South Africa.
We need to just have a look at the entire mining complex and understand that our diamonds, gold, platinum, lithium, etc, has been sold abroad and beneficiated there. Again, because it was cheaper to do so.
With the collapsing rand, we are starting to see the green shoots of manufacturing again. I can give you literally dozens of examples that I’m starting to see in my own small law practice.
You will recall the industrial disputes of the 1980s, which were vitriolic, destructive and brought the economy to its knees.
We have a wonderful example of an institution in South Africa today which has to a large degree created industrial peace. The Commission for Conciliation, Mediation and Arbitration has done enormous amount of work. Since 1996 more than 3.8 million labour disputes were referred to the CCMA alone.
This excludes private dispute resolution agencies and the bargaining councils. During 2022/23 financialyear, 185 000 disputes were referred to the CCMA. An estimated 75% of these disputes were settled within 24 days of referral.
In Gauteng alone, there were a 100 000 referred cases. You can imagine if there was no CCMA and we couldn’t settle at least 75% of those cases.
This is unbelievably positive news both for the economy and for the people. Strikes have by and large been peaceful and although not constructive they have done us an enormous favour.
* Michael Bagraim.
** The views expressed here are not necessarily those of Independent Media.
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