Should current trends hold, a low voter turnout scenario – in which only the most “committed” voters participate – could see between 41% and 43% of registered voters heading to the polls.
This is according to a survey by market research company Ipsos, based on the views of 2 545 registered voters interviewed. Interviews were conducted in the homes and home languages of respondents from March 9 to April 15.
Currently the Electoral Commission of SA (IEC) has recorded 27 698 369 registered voters across the country.
For its survey, Ipsos said it considered indicators such as interest in politics, desire to vote, stated intention to vote, and depth of party loyalty. By analysing responses to this series of survey questions, its algorithm generated three possible turnout scenarios.
“Should the current trends hold, a low voter turnout scenario – in which only the most committed voters participate – could see between 41% and 43% of registered voters heading to the polls.
“In a medium turnout scenario, the model indicates that the voter turnout rate may be between 57% and 59%. On the high end, Ipsos’s projections suggest that as many as 74% to 76% of registered voters could cast their ballots if voter enthusiasm reaches its peak,” Ipsos said.
In its possible scenarios, a lower voter turnout sees the ANC take 48% of the vote, the DA 20%, the EFF 10.3%, MKP 8.9% and other parties 11.4%. The high voter turnout scenario sees other parties taking a bigger cut of the vote at 12.6%, while the ANC takes 43%, the DA 21.5% and the EFF 11.1%.
Policy analyst Nkosikhulule Nyembezi said all citizens must use the ballot to “reward candidates who honoured election promises and punish those who have not”.
“Voters and analysts have long regarded how parties perform in the recent by-elections as a moment of high peril for incumbents, with the results likely to anticipate each party’s fate at the May 29 elections.
“But I also suggest that by-election losses during a national campaign could push some ANC officials over the edge. When a party president’s comment circulates on social media, telling party leaders they are not campaigning enough, defending the recent ANC losses in the by-elections is difficult.
“Most ANC leaders are not on the battlefield this time; it is like the army without the generals.
“Yet while ANC supporters appear resigned to losing this many local council seats nationwide, they bristle at the prospect of defeat in their metro mayoralties that account for large percentages of voters in national and provincial elections.”
Nyembezi added that the tail-end of election campaigns may have already “missed the boat”, as voter decisions on whether to vote or not, whether to vote for a large or small party, “were largely predictable”.
“Voters tend to evaluate political parties with a confirmatory bias. Specifically, voters begin a memory search by looking for reasons to select rather than not choosing a specific political party.”
Cape Times