President Cyril Ramaphosa may face difficulty in convincing the public that there is consequence management within his Cabinet, following corruption scandals involving ministers Thembi Simelane and Khumbudzo Ntshavheni, according to political analysts ahead of his State of the Nation Address (SONA).
Ramaphosa is set to deliver his SONA, in Cape Town, on February 6, where he will outline the priorities of the Government of National Unity (GNU) for the first time under his leadership as the leader of a coalition government.
The GNU was formed after the ANC’s electoral defeat during last year’s general elections.
This marked for the first time in the South African’s democracy history, the ANC will not govern alone at the national level, forming a coalition government with parties such as the Democratic Alliance (DA), Patriotic Alliance, Inkatha Freedom Party, Good Party, Pan Africanist Congress of Azania, Freedom Front Plus, United Democratic Movement, Al Jama-ah and Rise Mzansi.
In his opening of Parliament last year in July, Ramaphosa outlined seven priorities for the seventh administration, including combatting crime, addressing youth unemployment, improving education, ending load shedding, fostering economic growth, and implementing the National Health Insurance Bill.
However, there has been little change in these areas since then.
Speaking with IOL News, political analyst Goodenough Mashego said Ramaphosa might argue that progress has been made in combatting organised crime.
“He will focus on illicit mining and extortion gangs, which are among the biggest threats facing South Africa,” Mashego said.
“The operations at the Stilfontein, in the North West, could serve as an example, stating that the police went heavy on illegal miners and that it has sent a warning to other potential illegal miners that the government is not going to stand by.”
On unemployment, which now stands at 32.1%, Mashego suggested that Ramaphosa might highlight job creation through government incentives such as the presidential emergency stimulus package and the National Health Council and the National Research Council.
“There will likely be numbers showing employment opportunities created, however, critics will argue that these figures may not reflect the reality,” Mashego said.
Ramaphosa is likely to stress his success in passing the National Health Insurance (NHI) Bill, despite strong opposition from the DA and other parties, and concerns over its implementation and costs.
The NHI advocates the creation of a state fund to cover the medical costs of all South Africans – most of whom do not have private medical care.
The controversial scheme further bars South African citizens from taking out private health insurance for treatment paid for by the fund.
“He will point out to the legislature the victory of signing the bill into law, even though its implementation is still hanging in the balance,” Mashego told IOL News.
But, when it comes to corruption and accountability, Ramaphosa might struggle to convince the public that his ministers are being held accountable for their actions.
The cabinet reshuffle of Thembi Simelane, from the Justice Ministry to the portfolio of Human Settlements, has sparked criticism. Mmamoloko Kubayi who was the Minister of Human Settlements, has since replaced Simelane as the Justice Minister.
Simelane was linked to a R575,600 loan obtained from Gundo Wealth Solutions while she served as the mayor of Polokwane.
Similarly, Ntshavheni, who is serving as the Minister in the Presidency, faced similar allegations related to her time as a municipal manager of the Ba-Phalaborwa Local Municipality in July 2009.
She came into the spotlight after the Hawks investigated her in 2021 for her role in the irregular awarding of an R2.5 million tender for accounting consultancy services.
Mashego said that the ongoing roles of the two ministers in the cabinet will make it difficult for Ramaphosa to argue that there is real consequence management.
On the issue of the South African National Defence Force (SANDF) deployment in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), where 14 troops were killed in the clashes with the M23 rebels, Mashego said Ramaphosa may address the regional security situation.
Meanwhile, another political analyst, Professor Theo Neethling, from the University of the Free State’s department of political studies and governance, echoed Mashego’s sentiments on Ramaphosa addressing the regional security situation.
Neethling said the instability in countries such as the DRC and Mozambique requires a coordinated approach from South Africa, South African Development Community (SADC), and the African Union to prevent escalation into full scale conflict.
“The economic growth, governance and service delivery, and the functioning of the GNU, and foreign policy issues, will also feature prominently in the address,” Neethling said.
He added that the SONA will be one of its kind as it will also focus on the functioning of the GNU, which still includes parties with differing ideological views.
“It is going to be interesting to see how Ramaphosa will balance these priorities in a coalition government,” Neethling added.
IOL Politics