The ANC national executive committee (NEC) cannot distance itself from its former president, Jacob Zuma, who appeared in court on Friday, April 6, to face, long-overdue, 16 counts of corruption, fraud, money laundering, racketeering and tax evasion, out of a fear that he would cost it at the polls.
Even if the charges were related to state capture or any other crime committed during his term of office, the ANC cannot distance itself from Zuma because it could not tell him what wrong he had done to start with.
The ANC NEC makes a mistake that Cyril Ramaphosa’s illusionary new dawn would suffice to cling to state power in 2019. Hence, it is said that Ramaphosa wants to call for early elections. He is being misled, if not ill-advised.
Objective realities paint a contrary picture. The ANC needs Zuma, especially in his home province of KwaZulu-Natal, which is indisputably a heartland of Zulu nationalism, to cling to state power. Following the 2016 local government elections (LGEs), wherein the ANC lost Johannesburg, Nelson Mandela Bay (NMB) and Tshwane metropolitan municipalities and retained one, Ekurhuleni, through a coalition government, the DA has set its sights on the state power next year, 10 years earlier than it had prognosticated.
This is not far-fetched, not by a long shot.
The ANC has not only dropped further to 54%, but also lost the most populous province of Gauteng, where it has dropped to 46%. Gauteng holds sway on the state capture, followed by KwaZulu-Natal, the Eastern Cape and Western Cape.
The ANC is also likely to lose the Eastern Cape in 2019.
The LGEs are essentially a sample of the general elections. In 2006, the ANC lost the city of Cape Town to a DA-led coalition government.
Based on its good track record in the city in the main, a highlight of which was Western Cape Premier Helen Zille winning the 2008 World Mayor of the Year award, the DA won the Western Cape by 59%, growing its support by over 20%.
In the next elections, it grew by a further 8%.
The good work that DA mayors have been doing thus far in Johannesburg, NMB and Tshwane would help their party to do well in the Eastern Cape and Gauteng to the point of governing them through coalition governments.
Having already lost Gauteng, likely to lose the Eastern Cape, and unlikely to reclaim the Western Cape from the DA in the near future, the ANC will find it very difficult to cling to state power without doing well in KwaZulu-Natal on two counts.First, it is at internecine war with itself in the province between a pro-Sihle Zikalala faction, aligned to Zuma, and a pro-Senzo Mchunu, aligned to Ramaphosa.
Consequently, it went to the 54th national conference without the provincial executive committee (PEC) and emerged as the biggest loser with the highest number of delegates.
It does not have a representative in the party’s top six national office bearers (NOBs).
Judging by the disgruntlement over the composition of the provincial task team (PTT) in KwaZulu-Natal, the war is set to continue in the run-up to, during and post a re-run of the eighth provincial conference.
Zuma has the charisma to unite the party in the province.
In fact, his proposal to remain in power for six months and appear with Ramaphosa at public events to symbolise unity was a perfect idea, albeit he wanted to do it for his own endgame.
Second, Zuma still commands a great deal of admiration and support in the province.
Clearly, the ANC NEC did not heed Professor Xolela Mangcu’s unsolicited advice to EFF leader Julius Malema and his fellow revolutionary hotheads “that what stands between them and power is one very simple fact - most voters are not revolutionaries”.
Nor are most voters so concerned about corruption that they will not vote for the ANC because it supports Zuma under a universal principle that “one is innocent until proven guilty”.
In the 2014 general elections, preceded by a R246million Nkandla scandal, the ANC’s support dwindled in all provinces, except in KwaZulu-Natal. This speaks volume about Zulu nationalism.
While campaigning for Ramaphosa, Police Minister Bheki Cele, who hails from KwaZulu-Natal and is a Zulu, said some Zulus asked him why he supports a non-Nguni. Therefore, some Zulus in the province and some parts of the country may not vote for the ANC on that basis. Essentially, the power has shifted away from KwaZulu-Natal, as it does not have representation in the ANC NOBs and Zulu nationalist parties, particularly the IFP and the NFP, are likely to do well in 2019.
It would take at least 10 years to regain the soul and control of the party with a traditional practice that the deputy president succeeds the incumbent. In other words, ANC deputy president David Mabuza is set to take over the reins from Ramaphosa in 2027.
Mabuza knows how to win a conference. He, ANC secretary-general Ace Magashule, formerly ANC Free State chairperson and premier, and ANC North West chairperson and Premier Supra Mahumapelo played kingmaker roles in Zuma’s factional ascendancy to power at the 52nd and 53rd national conferences.
Mabuza also played a kingmaker role in Ramaphosa’s ascendancy to power with his insistence that Mpumalanga, which had brought the second-highest number of delegates at the 54th national conference, should vote for unity.
To that effect, he teamed up with former ANC Gauteng chairperson Paul Mashatile, the pro-Mchunu faction, and Zweli Mkhize to tilt the balance of power towards Ramaphosa.
The ANC should not repeat a Thabo Mbeki mistake, namely distancing itself from its former leader, with the ever-so-populist ANC national chairperson Gwede Mantashe asserting: “We are mobbing up his mess.”
Nevertheless, with the ANC carrying the unreserved blessings of Mbeki, it would have been very difficult for Mosiuoa Lekota and Mbhazima Shilowa to form Cope.
In a letter to Zuma, wherein he refused to partake in the ANC’s 2009 election campaign and appealed that nobody should use his “name falsely to promote their partisan cause”, Mbeki did not help to dispel a notion he was behind Cope’s formation.
The ground is fertile in KwaZulu-Natal for another ANC splinter party with Zuma’s tacit blessings. If formed, the party would mostly impinge on the ANC at the polls.
* Tshabalala is an author and independent political analyst