SOUTH Africa may have to adapt to the times and adjust its climate policies amid the return of American President-elect Donald Trump.
Trump has made it clear that his government will repeal significant climate policies passed during President Joe Biden’s presidency.
Under the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP), South Africa was expected to begin moving away from generating electricity from coal, which accounts for four-fifths of its electricity generation, to producing more renewable energy using a $9.3 billion (R169.1bn) climate loan from Germany, France, the UK, the US, and the EU.
However, Trump’s return after winning the 47th Presidential race may spell a dilemma for South Africa as Washington shifts from its previous energy policies, which Trump said were a “new scam.”
During his presidential election campaign, Trump pointed at Germany’s energy policy failures, noting that Germany’s economy suffered as it followed the green agenda and, as a result, had to rebuild coal plants.
This clearly poses a new challenge for the South African government, which has rallied behind the green agenda. Eskom shut its Komati coal-fired power plant last year, and more closures are slated to follow, threatening more than 51 000 jobs.
This move has received criticism from many, including Electricity Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa and Energy Minister Gwede Mantashe, who felt the country was being used as a “guinea pig” for a transition to renewable power.
They both unsuccessfully argued that the closure of Komati was premature and compromised the livelihoods of many who depended on that coal-fired plant for a living.
However, Trump’s return after winning the presidential race may spell a dilemma for South Africa, which already has funding from Western countries pushing for the green agenda.
Adil Nchabeleng, president of Transform RSA and an independent energy expert, believes the US will be in better hands under Trump regarding its energy plan and future prospects.
“With the anticipated shift in energy policy, South Africa might see renewed interest in technology exchange with the US, especially in coal HELE (high-efficiency, low-emission) technology and nuclear power projects.
“Trump’s victory could signal a global relaxation of climate change policies. This may lead to increased energy competition in the coming years as countries re-evaluate their energy policies to focus on domestic priorities and economic growth rather than adhering to the international climate agenda.
“Just as Trump championed “drill, baby, drill,” South Africa could benefit from a “coal, baby, coal” approach. The time is right for South Africa to promote its energy interests and pursue policies that align with the current global demand for coal, an abundant resource that could last nearly a thousand years,” he said.
Nchabeleng added that South Africa's clean energy policies in recent years have negatively impacted economic growth.
“Eskom, the national power utility, nearly collapsed under the weight of overambitious net-zero emissions goals. At one point, over 24000 MW of electricity generation capacity was lost due to stringent emission standards, and load shedding reached unprecedented levels, bringing economic and social hardship.
“Faced with severe economic damage and public dissatisfaction, the ANC government had no choice but to reverse its aggressive stance on shutting down power stations,” Nchabeleng said.
Just last week, Agence Française de Développement (AFD), responsible for implementing France’s policy on international development, concluded negotiations for the R7.6bn public policy loan to implement the country’s Just J.
ADF said that the loan was built on the €300 million public policy loan provided in 2022, bringing France’s total contribution to the JETP to €700 million (13.4bn) of the €1bn pledged at COP26 in Glasgow.
“The loan is linked to a set of policy reforms aimed at ensuring a just transition, and AFD is putting a robust monitoring and evaluation framework in place to track the progress of these reforms.
“South Africa’s JET is supported by a strong governance and institutional framework that includes the PCC, a dedicated JET-PMU, and a comprehensive investment plan underpinned by support from international partnerships with France and several other countries,” ADF said.
Parties, including the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), have strongly condemned the "just energy" loans from the World Bank, Germany, and African Development Bank, arguing they viewed this as an attempt to entrap South Africa in a debt trap by the African National Congress, “owing to their diminishing political power and control”.
The Red Berets mentioned that the loans were meant to control and dictate South Africa's politics and policy agenda once the ANC lost power.