Plotting an end game for Covid

Thobela Sigcu gets tested for COVID-19. Photographer: Armand Hough/African News Agency(ANA)

Thobela Sigcu gets tested for COVID-19. Photographer: Armand Hough/African News Agency(ANA)

Published Nov 14, 2022

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Johannesburg - Over 350 global experts, among them Wits University researchers, have reached consensus on how to end Covid-19 as a public health threat.

Two researchers from the University of the Witwatersrand, Professor Bruce Mellado from the Wits School of Physics and iThemba Labs, and Professor Helen Rees from the Wits Reproductive Health and HIV Institute, were involved in a study in which over 350 scientists from all over the world agreed on the best way forward in order to beat Covid-19 as a public health threat.

“It is great to see a large team of scientists from different backgrounds get together to ponder the implications and vast experience accumulated through the Covid-19 pandemic. Interdisciplinarity and transdisciplinary have played a significant role in dealing with this complex problem,” said Mellado, who is also the co-president of the Africa-Canada Artificial Intelligence and Data Innovation Consortium.

The study provides recommendations to end Covid-19 without exacerbating socio-economic burdens or putting the most vulnerable at greater risk.

As the virus continues to circulate, the study says specific efforts and resources are still required to save lives.

To develop global consensus on how to address these issues going forward, Jeffrey V Lazarus, head of the Health Systems Research Group and co-director of the Viral and Bacterial Infections Programme at ISGlobal, Associate Professor at the University of Barcelona and colleagues carried out a Delphi study, a research methodology that challenges experts to garner consensus on answers to complex research questions.

A multidisciplinary panel of 386 academic, health, NGO, government and other experts from 112 countries and territories took part in three rounds of structured consultation. The result was a set of 41 statements and 57 recommendations across six major areas: communication, health systems, vaccination, prevention, treatment and care, and inequities.

Three of the highest-ranked recommendations are to adopt a whole-of-society strategy that involves multiple disciplines, sectors and actors to avoid fragmented efforts; a whole-of-government approach to identify, review, and address resilience in health systems and make them more responsive to people’s needs; and to maintain a vaccines-plus approach, which includes a combination of Covid-19 vaccination, other structural and behavioural prevention measures, treatment and financial support measures.

Other recommendations with at least 99% agreement were communicating effectively with the public, rebuilding public trust, and engaging communities in managing the pandemic response.

“To the greatest degree possible, our results place emphasis on health and social policy recommendations that can be implemented in months, not years, to help bring this public health threat to an end,” said Quique Bassat, ICREA professor at ISGlobal, co-author of the study and member of the University of Barcelona.

“Our study does echo some earlier recommendations, such as the Independent Panel for Pandemic Preparedness and Response and WHO’s 2022 plan on Strategic Preparedness,” said Lazarus.

“But what makes this work unique is the very large number of experts consulted, the wide geographical representation, and the study design, which emphasises consensus building and identifies areas of disagreement. It may prove to be a model for developing responses to future global health emergencies.”

The Star