Elections 2024: ANC’s collapse opens a new universe for SA

The Electoral Commission of SA (IEC) chairperson Mosotho Moepya speaking at the National Results Operations Centre (ROC). Picture: Itumeleng English/Independent Newspaper

The Electoral Commission of SA (IEC) chairperson Mosotho Moepya speaking at the National Results Operations Centre (ROC). Picture: Itumeleng English/Independent Newspaper

Published Jun 1, 2024

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Cape Town - The ANC's poor performance in this week's general election opened up “a new universe for South Africa”, DA leader John Steenhuisen said.

This comes as talk of possible coalitions buzzed on the floor of the Electoral Commission of SA's (IEC's) National Results Operations Centre at Gallagher Estate in Midrand on Friday.

Wednesday's general election had seen the ANC achieving its worst results since the advent of democracy in South Africa in 1994.

ANC chairperson Gwede Mantashe, contacted for comment on Friday refused to take any questions, stating that he was at the National Results Operations Centre.

Mantashe reportedly said the ANC would not dispute the election results and had faith in the IEC's processes.

“The result, we'll accept them as they come. We are not jittery,” Mantashe said in response to market volatility over the prospect of a coalition government.

Mantashe said there were no plans for a possible coalition government, and any such move would be a consequence of the final tally of votes the party received.

“We are looking at various options, and those options would depend on the numbers ultimately when the results are announced,” said Mantashe.

The African National Congress national chairperson Gwede Mantashe at the National Results Operations Centre (ROC), Gallagher convention centre in Midrand. Picture: Itumeleng English/Independent Newspaper

Yesterday the CSIR's prediction model showed that just over 40% of the vote would go to the ANC, thus giving it 160 seats, considerably down from the 230 seats it won in the 2019 polls. The IEC will announce the final vote tally tomorrow.

In the Western Cape, pre-election polls predicted that the DA would struggle to get a majority.

But on Thursday night, as the results from smaller polling stations came through, it became apparent that the DA would comfortably hold on to its majority in the Western Cape legislature.

The DA's provincial chairperson Jaco Londt, ascribed the party's performance in the Western Cape to getting out its voting base.

According to the CSIR, the DA would be the second-largest party in the National Assembly with 21.7% of the vote and the MK Party displacing the EFF for third place with 14.6%.

National Results Operating Centre (ROC) for the 2024 national and provincial elections at the Gallagher convention centre in Midrand. Picture: Itumeleng English/Independent Newspaper

Steenhuisen, reportedly said his party would wait for all the results to be tallied before any discussions started about possible coalitions.

“My first port of call would be with my Multi-Party Charter partners. We're 10 other parties.

“Once the final results are up we will have a meeting and we will discuss together what (we think) the next step forward should be for us to work together,” said Steenhuisen.

When asked by reporters about any talks with the ANC, he said the DA was not ruling anything out.

Earlier he said that DA was happy with the provisional outcome of the elections after many political observers had written off his party.

“It's great! We've been able to hold on to our base. But if I look at the figures and the numbers, we've doubled our vote among black South Africans.

“In areas where we've not done so well in (recent) by-elections, we've won all those areas back: Hornlee (in Knysna), Beaufort West, Eldorado Park, all of those areas, it's looking good,” said Steenhuisen.

With the votes the DA garnered, and with no single party able to form a majority, it would become a big player in determining South Africa's next government.

Steenhuisen said he was disappointed in the performance of the other, smaller parties, which formed part of the Multi-Party Charter.

“ActionSA had told us that they would bring 10.56% of the vote to the table. We had made an undertaking that we would bring the bulk of what would be needed to get to the 50% plus one …

“It's been my desire for the Multi-Party Charter to go over the edge. This was not a strategy, we made sure that we assisted with funding, we helped some of the smaller parties (be put in touch with donors) so that they could run their activities and obviously I would like to see them do a bit better,” said Steenhuisen.

South African opposition Democratic Alliance (DA) federal leader John Steenhuisen, speaking during interviews with members of the media. Picture: Itumeleng English/Independent Newspaper

University of the Free State political analyst Profesor Sethulego Matebesi said that behind-the-scenes negotiations between parties would deliver the outline of a coalition agreement.

“They might decide that, even a party with a small margin (of votes), ‘Look, you take the Presidency but we want the Deputy Presidency, we want that ministry and then they can go (and reach an agreement)',” said Matebisi.

He said ideological differences, as with the ANC and the DA, would not preclude them from working together.

“The party which has the strongest bargaining power here, is the ANC. They've got the most votes but now need to go and look for partners,” said Matebisi.

When it came to coalition partners moderating their policies on issues like, for instance, land redistribution, Matebese said neither party would have to do that when entering into a coalition agreement.

“(In a coalition) there will have to be a compromise. But then, yet again, what we have learnt from this election is that South Africans suddenly have realised the power that they have and I strongly believe that South Africans, going forward, will punish parties that go into coalition with parties that they don't normally want to, or have several issues with,” said Matebisi.

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